Since its development of our 1st joint research, the outlook of natural gas supply, demand and the state of each project have changed dramatically. In addition, it is necessary to take into account LNG (liquefied natural gas) and other energy resources to evaluate the future position of PNG (piped natural gas) since LNG dominates natural gas trade in Northeast Asia. With these premises, the objective of this 3rd research was to develop a new long-term vision of natural gas infrastructure based on the latest information obtained in close cooperation and collaboration with our member organizations.
International Pipeline Network in Northeast
Major achivements and findings
Major achievements and findings of this research are summarized as follows:
- We consolidated natural gas supply and demand prospect information on NEA countries (Russia, China, South Korea, Japan and Mongolia) in 2020. Russia and China are major natural gas producing countries in NEA. Natural gas production in China in 2020 will reach 120 bcm. Meanwhile, East Siberia and the Far East of Russia can produce 153 bcm in 2020, within which 102 bcm will be able to export to other countries;
- In NEA region as a whole, total natural gas demand in 2020 is expected to reach 388 bcm. Natural gas demand in China will increase dramatically reaching more than 200 bcm in 2020. It is almost five times more compared to the current level. Natural gas demand in South Korea will also grow steadily towards 2020 and its amount will reach 46 bcm, which is more than double compared to the level in 2000. Prospect for Japan shows the most modest growth among the NEA countries. Natural gas demand in year 2020 is about 100 bcm, which is roughly 30% increase compared to the current level of consumption;
- Production capacity and demand balance of natural gas in 2020 suggests that the natural gas export from East Siberia and the Far East of Russia (102 bcm) could cover more than 25% of the total natural gas demand (388bcm) in NEA;
- Natural gas supply from East Siberia and the Far East could reduce CO2 emission as much as 80-156 million ton CO2 in 2020 if it replaces crude oil or coal consumption in the region. This amount is equivalent to 1.5-2.9% of the total CO2 emission in China, South Korea and Japan in 2002;
- Based on the natural gas supply and demand prospects, we developed a long-term vision of natural gas infrastructure including LNG as well as PNG. This research presented natural gas infrastructure vision with two different target years, namely "Infrastructure Vision in 2020" and "Infrastructure Vision in 2030";
- "Infrastructure Vision in 2020" was drawn based on the future prospects of natural gas supply and demand indicated above. In addition, we also drew "Infrastructure Vision in 2030" as an ideal situation in the future considering the energy alliance among NEA countries.
One of the differences between this research and previous researches by the NAGPF is that this research covers LNG as well as PNG. In the past, the NAGPF's work has been mainly focusing on PNG. But we believe it is necessary to include LNG in our scope, as demand for LNG is growing rapidly in countries like China, India and North America. In that sense, this research made a major step forward for us.
Another feature of this research is that a future vision of natural gas infrastructure covering both PNG and LNG has been developed with the target year 2020 and beyond. The vision in 2020 takes into account natural gas supply and demand prospects in 2020, which were provided by relevant organizations in each country. The vision in 2030 was developed by consolidating visions and plans proposed by various organizations and discussions among the NGAPF member organizations.
All the projects including the West Gas to East in China in our previous long-term vision were under planning stage only five years ago. Since then, the West Gas to East project was completed and an International Feasibility Study for the Kovykta Project was conducted in collaboration with Russia, China and South Korea. In addition, we saw a great advance in projects in Sakhalin. These facts strongly indicate that the natural gas infrastructure in NEA has now entered into an implementation stage from its planning stage and we believe this study presents the most realistic and feasible future vision of natural gas infrastructure in NEA at this moment.
By realizing this vision, we believe we could improve our energy security in the region, strengthen our mutually supportive relationship and reduce our impact on the environment such as acid rain and CO2 emission. Furthermore, we can utilize this gas pipeline network infrastructure for hydrogen transportation in the future. NEA region has abundant renewable energy resources such as hydro and wind, and we can produce hydrogen from these renewable energy resources and transport it in blending with natural gas. By doing so, we can transit smoothly from hydrocarbon society to hydrogen society in the future.
As mentioned above, natural gas infrastructure in NEA is already in an implementation stage and it has a huge and long-term positive impact not only to the region but also to the whole world. We do hope this vision will be realized in near future in close cooperation and coordination with relevant parties, and the NAGPF would like to continue its effort to encourage and catalyze them for its realization.
||1.1 Background and Objective|
||1.2 Methodology and Procedure|
||1.3 Research Flow|
||Energy policies and Natural Gas Supply and Demand Prospects
in Northeast Asia|
||2.3 South Korea|
||Development Trend of Natural Gas Infrastructure in Northeast Asia
||3.3 South Korea|
||A Long-term Vision of Natural Gas Infrastructure in Northeast Asia
||4.1 Natural Gas Supply and Demand Balance in Northeast Asia|
||4.2 Long-Term Vision of Natural Gas Infrastructure|
||Results and Future Task|
||5.1 Results of the Research|
||5.2 Future Task|
|Asia Gas & Pipeline
Cooperation Research Center of China
||Mr. Shi Xunzhi|
Prof. Hu Jianyi
|Asian Pipeline Research Society of
||Prof. M. Hirata|
Mr. S. Abe
Dr. K. Ohashi
|Asian Pipeline Research Societyr of the Russian Federation
||Acad. A.E. Kontorovich|
Prof. B. Saneev
Prof. A. Safronov
|Korea Pan-Asian Natural Gas &
||Mr. H. B Sunwoo|
|Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia